Soothing chimerical resolve: tackling our global problems; (August 10, 2009)
Note: I posted the original essay on June 23, 2009 and I needed to re-edit it. This post will focus on the global problems. The follow up post will consider viable global resolutions.
Fact one: Climate and environment are quickly deteriorating.
Fact two: Birth control is not efficient in the mostly under-developed States
Fact three: Potable water and water for irrigation are dwindling fast.
Fact four: The middle classes in China and India are expanding alarmingly.
Fact five: The world economy is experiencing serious deflationary period.
Fact six: The world is going through deep financial crisis and recession.
Fact seven: Effective military spending should decrease but it didn’t.
Fact eight: The identity crisis around the world is destabilizing order and security.
Fact One: Climate and environment are quickly deteriorating. The ten signs of alert are proven in the following evidences.
Oceans are turning more acid. At 8 kilometers of the Californian coasts shells and corals are being dissolved. In the Pacific Ocean, 30% of mussel has disappeared. Planktons, the basic food chain for fishes, small and large, are no longer abundant; 30% has depleted since the industrial age.
The Arctic is changing drastically. Ice field has melted by 27% in the last two decades. Temperature increased by 3 degrees in the last 5 years. Thus, the more ice melt the larger the surface is exposed to direct sun rays and consequently the more the rate of ice melting increases. The level of oceans is increasing and covering more dry lands.
The Amazon and tropical forests regions are drying up and liberating higher quantities of carbon dioxide. This equatorial forest is liberating more CO2 than absorbing; absorbing CO2 was their primary function. More trees are dying and thus liberating more CO2 by decomposition. The higher the concentration of CO2 the lesser trees “perspire” and the more reduced are rains in quantity and frequency.
The climate in Antarctica, the main source of future potable water, is milder; temperature has increased by one degree since the fifties. Salinity of sea water in the southern globe is decreasing. The Antarctic must be melting faster than observed.
Seasons are in advance of schedule and migratory birds are suffering. Spring is one week earlier in Europe: 75% of birds studied in Europe have declined in number and migrating further north and seek higher altitudes.
Dry seasons are extending. Monsoons are rarefied; precipitations are decreasing and the desert in North Africa is expanding southward western Africa. Deforestation might still be the main culprit but the warming up of the environment is catching up fast as the main factor.
Methane gas, present as methane hydrate in maritime sediment, is escaping from oceans. The under layer of pergolas (pergelisol) used to act as a lid but more abundant hot water is being ejected in the Arctic seas; the concentration along the Russian coast is 200 times superior to normal. Methane gas is far worse than CO2 (20 times more powerful in retaining heat) for the warming up of the environment.
Glaciers such as the Himalaya and the Quelccaya (Peru) are losing 0.85 meters in their thickness every year. Around 40 frozen lakes in Nepal and Bhutan are breaking up.
Sea levels are climbing 3 mm every year on average; the levels in the Pacific Ocean and Mediterranean Sea are reaching the alarming climb of 20 mm a year.
The warming up of the climate is accelerating dangerously. Temperature increased 0.6 degrees just in the last 30 years while it took a century to increase 0.2 degrees before then. The concentration in CO2 has increased to about 400 molecules per million; it was just 270 before the industrial age.
The liberation of methane gas and the drought of tropical forests are the two major factors that show evidence in the acceleration of environmental degradation. The fast degradation has overtaken current research data that are no longer suitable for predicting the approaching calamity.
Fact Two: Birth control is not efficient in the mostly under-developed States.
China and India are supposed to have gotten birth rate under control but it is not because of higher educational level and better standards of living. There are evidence of massive euthanasia practices on females and minorities camouflaged within laws interpreted very loosely and selectively. In the under-developed States political instability, poor security for law and order, unsustainable social institutions, and lack of financial and technical supports are exacerbating an already dangerous trend. The UN is short on money and manpower in its specialized sections to counter this scourge. Over 50% of the population in Indonesia, Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sudan, and Iran for example are under 15 years of age. (Global viable and alternative resolutions will be developed in a follow up article)
In Japan and many European States the trend is reversed; over 30% of the population is elderly (above 65 years) and draining the health budgets.
Fact Three: Potable water and water for irrigation are dwindling fast.
Climatic changes, heavy river pollution, accelerated urban centers, high rate of birth, and the early melting of mountain tops are depleting potable resources faster than expected. Many States rich in rivers, especially those witnessing drought seven months per year, have not be aided in erecting dams for emergency seasons. More States conflicts are centering on equitable potable water sharing. The criticality of water supply is one of the main problems facing people in the coming decade.
Fact Four: The middle classes in China and India are at least three times larger than the combined numbers in the USA and Europe and growing quickly.
China and India are experience much better increases in their GNP than the USA and Europe during this downturn. Consequently, China and India will focus on their internal markets to grow their economies in the same manner as the USA has been benefiting for over three centuries. Middle classes demand to have consumer goods available since they have the money to purchase them. They certainly have this right. The problem is that purchasing cars is the first priority for middle class citizens with investment in infrastructures and facilities to abuse of these vehicles. China has already surpassed the USA in the number of purchased car this year. India is making available inexpensive cars marketed at $2,000 in India. The kinds of energy sources that will drive these cars will have great consequences. Consumerism can drive economies but depletion of natural resources requires a cultural change to accommodate a sustainable earth.
Fact Five: The world economy is experiencing serious deflationary period.
The world economy is struggling and the downturn is expected to last for at least 5 years. This might be the best excellent news for a sustainable world production and a strategy for an economy of sobriety in consumption. There is the need for drastic diminishing of redundant and irrelevant consumer goods that can be substituted easily for human survival. Globalization created economic blocks with objective of exercising political pressures on the established developed nations. The economic or trade blocks such as South-East Asian States, the Southern Latin American States, the Gulf Arab/Iranian States, and soon a few African States are struggling to stay above water and keep up with the fast moving globalization trend.
The International Monetary Fund extended three quarter of its resources on the already industrialized states since its inception in 1944. The G20 decided to triple the IMF fund to $750 billions. The G20 will extended 44% of the funds, the other developed State a third and the over 55 poorer States will cover 17%. It was hoped the restrictions and conditions for funding projects will be reduced from 17 conditions to 5 but nothing has been materializing so far.
Fact Six: The world is going through deep financial crisis.
Millions of workers and employees lost their jobs in a few months and that trend is increasing faster than expected. The infusion of trillions of dollars into banks in order to facilitate the flow of trade transactions did not save banks from declaring bankruptcy. The meeting of the biggest 20 financial markets that produce over 85% of the world economical transactions has not reached any consensus as to the financial basket reference for money fluctuation or the control of paper money issuing rights of individual power States. Consequently, the financial crisis is opened to dangerous more frequent reversals on a downward trend. The USA is heavily relying on China for covering its increasing debt by purchasing US Treasury Bills. China will be facing enormous capital investment inside because of the consequences of rapid economical strategies. The rivers in China are over polluted, drought seasons are more frequent, and over 30 millions working in urban centers have been forced to relocate to rural areas where no job opportunities are available. The moment China decides to cut down on financing US debt the dollars will be devalued (for printing more paper money than the economy can support) and another financial crisis will loom on the horizon.
Fact Seven: Effective military spending at the increase.
People expected a rational decision by States in this economic and financial troubled times; people were hopeful that military budgets should decrease to balance other more needy budgets such as health, the environment, creating productive jobs, and education. The reverse happened: every major State that exported military hardware increased its military budget and it skyrocketed. The USA expenditure is more than double China and Russia combined and the fields of military operations expanding around the world. Societies are far more unstable and experiencing high unemployment rates and lower quality jobs for the qualified graduates.
Fact Eight: The identity crisis around the world is destabilizing order and security.
After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, Europe had to face up to the identity and ethnic crisis in East Europe such as ethnic and religious “cleansing” and the drive for independence of tiny States within the disintegrating Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union. The European Union (EU) is the best representative for projects of unification among States with identity crisis. The EU is clearly the most advanced union in matter of forging ahead with ethical issues.
Gorbachev has declared recently that Europe squandered 20 years of potential opportunities for stabilizing the European continent after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the defeat of communist Soviet Union. If we revisit the problems that Europe had to deal with in priority then Europe had plenty of excuses. First, West Germany had to absorb the cost of the re-unification of the crumbling economy of East Germany; then the EU had to battle the consequences of the disaster of 9/11 of 2001 and the frantic pressures of the Bush Jr. Administration to rally Europe to the invasion of Iraq; then the pronouncement of the Christian Conservatives alliance of the US administration of the binary dicta “either you are with us or against us”; then the declaration of an old senile Defense Minister Rumsfeld lambasting “old and senile Europe” and getting hold of the European oil investments in Iraq. The EU has now to come with a plan for the increased illegal immigration as the ideal destination location. It must be that Europe was in a rejuvenation phase to have forged ahead in short time to a successful unification program.
Global problems to whom? These problems affect us all but the “G20 something” think that they are the only one concerned. Solution for the G20 is lending money to more mega polluting mega projects. So far, the UN did not propose a program to deal with global problems. Not a single President of the G5 went public to remind us that there is such a program. Life is going on leisurely as if dirt is swept under the carpet and that is worrisome; citizens of earth are not asked to contribute and share in the responsibilities. A follow up article will attempt to offer viable global resolution and will tackle the troubles with religious extremism and state ideologies. All that I am asking is to be offered soothing chimerical resolves of the international community that it is aware of the global problems and that it promises me at least a few plans and directions.
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